I've got some more free time on my hands compared to non pandemic times. Go figure. I don't play MtGO. Been playing Arena since the very first beta came out. (According to Arena login information, it says "Member since: 12/20/2017) I haven't put much money in, only did a couple times to get some gem deals so I could poorly draft.
Since Historic has been a thing, I find it interesting. Slightly modified version of Pioneer. They get cards into it how they can. For example, they slid Thoughtseize in Amonkhet Remastered. Go figure.
I decided to grind Historic with burn... but not just any burn, control burn. I was ok at it. Got to Gold without really trying. But with Jumpstart, they introduced Pillar of Flame. Sweet!
I starting rocking the wins. I made it to Platinum and hit a wall. Couldn't get further... so I made more adjustments. Took out Heartfire, and just put MORE burn in with Shocks. Here is the deck I tweaked to perfection. (ignore the SB as I never use it and it is likely jank)
The deck actually plays as control, but it can win from now where. Yes, it only has 18 lands. I have won a fair number of games on 2 mana. The mortal enemy of the deck is mono-black with Phyrexian Obliterator. I've won against it, but it is entirely up to how much damage I got in before they play the Obliterator out. If I can get them down under 10, there is a decent chance I can just burn them out.
It can control Goblins with Muxus long enough to get damage in. Same with Elves. However, sticking a single Fanatical Firebrand, or with a Fervent Champion, really doesn't do enough. The true MVP of the deck is Ghitu Lavarunner to be honest. Makes the Wizard's Lightning a bolt. Can push through 2 points a turn which is nothing to sneeze at. Generally, does exactly what the deck wants to do.
Here is my winning match to make Mythic. Sorry, no sound... still figuring out OBS software.
Couple of notes-
Once you make mythic in ANY constructed format, you are mythic for all of them. Kinda weird.
Still not a fan of Collected Company/sac deck. But whatever.
Much like real paper life, I still don't own any Thoughtseizes
Even though I made Mythic, there are other layers yet. To make the top 1000 you need to crawl even more up the way by winning even more. Which means:
I am gonna play a meme sort of deck more than I want to because I don't want to make the top 1000. Sooooooooooooo here is my 0/X Combo Deck
Magic is a product. A very inventive game. Hugely successful for WoTC, thus Hasbro its parent company. Its been around for a while, 27 years now. The very first reserve list, those cards WoTC flagged as to never be reprinted, was published on March 4, 1996. The reserve list language can be found here.
I am no lawyer, don't even play one on TV. Not sure how legally binding this list is to their costumers. However, it has caused quiet a few problems in the opportunity for those who like the older cards to continue to play those same cards. Allow me to break this down in WAY too many words for my own good.
I am worried about the health and long term stability of paper legacy right now. Allow me to expand
Pandemics and EDH
The pandemic/Covid-19 has caused a very interesting problem with Magic players. There was fear early in the pandemic that many players would start to dump their collections to help pay rent, get food, generally survive. Prices were poised to tank, and we saw some of that in Europe for a short time. That has not been the case at all. If anything, the opposite has occurred. Free money has flooded the market. On top of that, players who normally would go out, travel, spend money on other events have focused inward. Those extra dollars are now spent on high dollar cards like Dual lands. And the players with the most diverse interest? EDH. They drive the market. Even causal players have no problems with getting their needed one of dual land for their deck. Before the pandemic, they drove the market so much so that 2020 was declared by WoTC to be the year of commander.
EDH players buy packs way more often than standard or format players. They buy a single copy of something for their pet decks, and they have MANY decks. They drive prices more than anything else including Standard, or Pioneer. That causal format is how most players enjoy the game by heads and shoulders over everything else.
These two issues have dried the market up. Vendors are not sloshing through cards as players sell out of one thing and into another. Players are not ditching reserve list cards to get some new hype. Even the mega-sites like Card Kingdom have slowly raised their prices on duals like Volcanic Island over the past 2 months so they can offer higher sale/trade in values. I was personally watching this so I could get another one after a large trade up. On 6/26 I got a Good condition revised Volc for $342.99. Currently Good is priced at $405.99. $66 more in two months. There are no paper events occurring. There are none planned for the rest of the year. Where are the cards going? EDH players.
But- thats blue based duals. Who cares? To which I say- Look at even the lowly Plateau. Currently clocking in at about $175. PLATEAU!!!
Paper Legacy is headed to:
All this above leads me to say:
I am currently worried for the health of paper legacy because it is being eaten alive by EDH. These are the factors I can see, and have seen, in the current times of EDH domination:
- Newer invested players, or even long time players, will cash out their duels because it is just too much money to turn down.
- The player base will retract considerably, thus drying up the pools of players and shops able/willing to support the format.
- Only a few die hards will hang on to play in MUCH smaller regional events. Legacy will basically become the same as Vintage, only the hard core long time invested players.
If prices continue at this pace, I might not have much disagreement to selling my duals off. I could use a new camera body. (Canon 5D anyone?) I've got no problem with playing with proxies again because the player base will have shrunk to the point that it will be just a couple buddies drinking beer and cracking jokes. The meta will be driven by on-line play only. I don't want much part of that. The death of Legacy might be coming sooner than we thought due to Covid-19 and EDH. A two headed monster that will only keep the most hardcore players hanging on.
Possible answers
Reserve List test case- Oubliette
Oubliette. A card that was a perfect case of, "Its only expensive because of the rareness." It got to a high value of about $50, two years ago. Slowly drifted back down, and then got reprinted in Double Masters, at- UNCOMMON! Oh. My. God. The original printing is gonna tank! Its gonna suck! Its gonna- go back to $30. Even with a BRAND new printing, the original version is what most people are gonna want for flair. Newer players can afford the new printing. More copies are injected into the market, even foil! Oooooooooooooo, shiny. The original kept its value.
Yes, the new printing has been out for only a month. Who knows, maybe someone is buying up all the 2XM copies and trying to corner the market. (good luck with that, if you are) Time will tell, but for now, the old card is still valuable because its the first. Plenty of people want that.
I dare say this is the same for Reserve List cards. Yes, the market will take a hit for original versions, BUT injecting THOUSANDS of new copies of a new art work, new frame, etc. will only open up the available game play with those new copies. Introductory players can now play those formats at better prices. People who want Beta Lightning Bolts will always pay a premium for them. Why not just get Mystery Booster copy for $1 or less? Bling, statement, and investment. Old cards are valuable people of the history, the rareness, and perceived value.
And for goodness sake, DO NOT put them into Secret Lairs. UGH.... though I suspect they would. Though I honestly don't know if a good way of getting them back into circulation that wouldn't cause immediate arm failing and various degrees of panic over at mtgfiance on reddit.
Proxies/counterfeits?
I am all in favor of people testing out the formats they like. Try decks by proxing the cards they don't have. Play test with friends or in unsanctioned events. Yes thats fine!
Don't sell known fake cards. Don't trade fake cards like they are real. Don't be a jerk about it so you can make a buck.
Currently Chinese fake/proxies are good enough to pass the double sleeve test without much thought. With the holostamps on the newer cards, it is even more so. I've heard of upwards of half the cards in decks being fake/proxy, getting deck checked, and being fine. Judges are more concerned with making sure the cards in your list are what you said they were than spending time pulling out all the cards for realness or not. Unless you are pulling out "beta" duals for your entire deck, or some set of Guru lands because you thought they would be cool, almost no one will bat an eye at a set of holo-stamped Fetch lands from Kahns. (why fake that!?)
These cards are an un-regulated market. There is a LOT of money to floating out there. People want to get something for near nothing- hence the idea of a pack of cards MAYBE containing $100 for just $10. The only thing holding it back is honestly and the amount of money it would take to make the best fakes.
Now the problem is, magic cards are faked. The 'quality' of the fakes are getting better, not worse. If there is money to be made, and there is a ton, the quality of these fakes are only going to get better over time. I would be utterly shocked if the best fakes out there are completely undetectable. I am convinced it has already happened. (rumors have circulated about fakes beating PSA/grading companies) I am sure plenty of players out there have unknown fake cards in their collections, and play them without even knowing.
Double Masters was a hit, if you nailed the variance. Which also took A LOT of money to do. VIP packs started at 85 and just went up. (please note- they can be easily searched and resealed without anyone knowing.)
I went to my LGS draft store (Gamer Corps) and bought 3 packs. At $16.50 per, I felt a little squeamish because I knew I was buying lottery scratch-offs. However, I wanted to support the store during insanity. Got there, and was informed that they were planning to draft the set that night. *GULP!* Yeah, no thanks. Don't feel comfortable occupying the same space with folks I don't know for 3-4 hours passing cards around at first. Draft is fun, but not a risk I'm willing to take at this time.
Here is my video of those three packs. Don't blink it will go quick:
Small note on the video. The reason I wasn't as excited for Ensnaring Bridge, I had JUST acquired a Stronghold copy via trade. Happy to have a second copy, just funny as heck.
Next on the docket- singles.
At first I really thought I was going to get a set of Thoughtsieze. Really I did. However, I was watching the pre-sale prices and they didn't go down. Sooooooooooo, I turned to my next target- Trinisphere. Previous to this printing, there were only 3 versions available. The Darksteel, From the Vault, and a Masterpiece. The Darksteel was expensive, $60 as of just last year, and slowly slide down to about $30. I don't want the foil From the Vault version... and the Masterpiece, well, no. Nice printing, don't get me wrong. Just I have so many other needs that bling makes no sense for me here.
Why buy Trinisphere? I am betting that Astrolabe will be kicked to the curb sooner than later. Once mana goes back to pressed non-basics, then things like Mono/Dragon Stompy become a thing again. Thats when I need/want the Trinisphere. Yes, I know. I need Chrome Mox. But not at current prices. It was printed in 2XM, however, it never got below $40 and is now easily $50 plus again.
The first thing I did was to scope out my "buy point." The price I felt was the lowest I could accept without screwing myself later. For reference, I got hosed on my "buy point" for Rishadian Port and M25. For Trinisphere, I felt WAY more comfortable at about $12-13 for each copy. I waited nicely Friday... then Saturday morning. I kept checking eBay buy-it-now prices, and TCG. I also checked in with a couple folks to see their opinion of this product. Consensus was- get singles release weekend. There is no natural curve to this set. A ton of it will be opened the first weekend, then the market will soak up the singles and prices float back up. (I've seen that analysis on Reddit Mtg Finance)
When I pulled the trigger, it was on eBay. I found 3 different listings. All total, I paid $50.77 for four copies.
As of now, the cheapest copy on eBay buy-it-now are at least $15. TCG is at least $19. Yup- saving money for the things I want/need. Feels good.
Lastly, trying something new this week- some video play content. Two reasons:
#1 Fun to try doing new things. Might try Arena at first with a CRAPPY microphone, and eventually try capturing Legacy paper play video webcam. Likely running out a Sneak&Show build just because I can.
#2 I am curious to see how my game play is. Reviewing your own play, I've heard, is one of the best ways to help improve my game. And god knows my game needs improvement.
